Amendment 3, which would raise the tax exemption for owner-occupied homes to $250,000 in 2028, has 44% support among likely voters. It needs 60% to pass. That is according to a new St. Pete Polls survey for Florida Politics, conducted six days before Election Day.
Thirty-nine percent of respondents oppose the amendment, and 17% are undecided. To reach 60%, the amendment would have to win 96% of undecided voters. Among those who have made up their minds, it has 53%. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.2 percentage points. In September, the same pollster recorded 45% support, 30% opposition and 25% undecided.
Forty-six percent of respondents said they had already voted. That group opposes the amendment 45% to 40%, with 15% undecided. Among the 54% who still plan to vote, 48% support the amendment, 34% oppose it and 18% are undecided.
Republican voters support the amendment 62% to 24%. Republicans make up 40% of the 3.15 million ballots returned as of Tuesday morning, according to the Division of Elections. Voters under 30 oppose it 63% to 28%.
The amendment would raise the exemption from non-school property taxes to $150,000 in 2027 and $250,000 in 2028, and starting in 2029 would index its growth to inflation. It would also lower the annual cap on growth in the taxable value of nonresidential property from 10% to 5%. According to state economists, local government revenue could eventually fall by as much as $12 billion a year.
Last Wednesday, Gov. Ron DeSantis spent more than an hour on camera promoting the amendment at a meeting with Miami-area local officials. According to Florida Phoenix, he expressed concern that Republican turnout in mail-in and early voting is not as high as he would like. A University of North Florida poll last week gave the amendment 50% support. The election will be held Nov. 3.
Source: Florida Politics, Florida Phoenix
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Source: Słoneczne Radio
