Civic Coalition (KO) would receive 30 percent of the vote, Law and Justice (PiS) 15.5 percent, Konfederacja 14 percent and Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (Confederation of the Polish Crown) 9.1 percent, according to an IBRiS poll for Wirtualna Polska published Friday.
According to the United Surveys by IBRiS poll for Wirtualna Polska, Civic Coalition (Koalicja Obywatelska, KO) remains the support leader, with 30 percent of respondents backing it (up 2.8 percentage points from the Nov. 2 poll).
Support for Law and Justice (Prawo i Sprawiedliwość, PiS) was 15.5 percent (down 2.7 percentage points).
Konfederacja registered 14 percent support (up 0.7 of a percentage point), while Grzegorz Braun’s Konfederacja Korony Polskiej received 9.1 percent (down 2.5 percentage points).
The Left (Lewica) would also win seats in parliament, with 6.8 percent (down 0.3 of a percentage point), as would Rozwój Plus, with 6.1 percent support (up 0.9 of a percentage point).
Below the 5 percent electoral threshold were the Polish People’s Party (Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe, PSL) with 4.5 percent support (up 1.6 percentage points), the Razem party with 3.1 percent of the vote (down 0.7 of a percentage point), and Polska 2050, which 0.8 percent of respondents said they would vote for (up 0.8 of a percentage point).
The share of undecided respondents was 10.1 percent.
As Wirtualna Polska notes, Jarosław Kaczyński’s party recorded its weakest support in the history of its polls to date. KO, meanwhile, gained 2.8 percentage points compared with the survey from early November. Over that time, KO’s lead over PiS grew from 9 to 14.5 percentage points.
Wirtualna Polska’s calculations show that the parties making up the current majority would lose power. In the 460-seat Sejm, Poland’s lower house of parliament, Civic Coalition would win 194 seats, Law and Justice 90, Konfederacja 80, and Grzegorz Braun’s Konfederacja Korony Polskiej 45. The Left could count on 28 seats, while Rozwój Plus would gain 23.
Under that arrangement, KO and the Left would have a combined 222 seats, which means they would fall 9 seats short of an absolute majority of 231 lawmakers. As WP notes, Rozwój Plus would decide who governs. With 23 seats, the party would give a majority to either the right (238 lawmakers together with PiS, Konfederacja and Braun’s party) or to KO and the Left (245).
The United Surveys by IBRiS poll for Wirtualna Polska was conducted Nov. 6–9, 2026, using a combined CATI & CAWI method (telephone and online interviews) on a nationwide, representative sample of 1,000 adult Poles.
Wirtualna Polska calculated the seat distribution using the method of Prof. Jarosław Flis of Jagiellonian University. (PAP)
A Slightly Different Poll for “SE”: KO at 34.06 Percent, PiS at 22.09 Percent; Rozwój Plus Sees Biggest Drop
If elections to the Sejm were held this Sunday, 34.06 percent of respondents would vote for KO and 22.09 percent for PiS, according to a poll by the Pollster Research Institute for Super Express. Rozwój Plus recorded the largest drop in support.
Respondents were asked: If elections to the Sejm were held this Sunday, which party would you vote for?
Civic Coalition remains at the top of the list, with 34.06 percent of respondents declaring support. That is an increase of 0.62 percentage points.
Law and Justice came in second with 22.09 percent (down 0.26 of a percentage point).
Next was Konfederacja Wolność i Niepodległość (Confederation of Freedom and Independence), chosen by 13.15 percent of respondents (up 0.91 of a percentage point).
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej was chosen by 8.52 percent of those surveyed (up 0.68 of a percentage point).
The last party that would make it into parliament is Nowa Lewica (New Left), with support at 7.01 percent (down 0.09 of a percentage point).
The Razem party was chosen by 4.46 percent of respondents; Mateusz Morawiecki’s Rozwój Plus by 4.42 percent; PSL by 3.34 percent; Szymon Hołownia’s Polska 2050 by 1.59 percent; and Unia Centrum by 0.43 percent. Other parties were chosen by 0.93 percent of respondents.
As Super Express noted, Rozwój Plus recorded the biggest drop, at 0.77 of a percentage point.
The survey was conducted Nov. 9 and 10 on a sample of 1,052 adult Poles. (PAP)
