Poland’s Ministry of National Defense announced Tuesday that the United States has decided to locate a service center for PAC-3 missiles, used in air defense systems, in Poland. Warsaw has lobbied for the decision for months; the longer-term goal is to bring a factory producing the scarce missiles to Poland.

Patriot air defense systems and the advanced missiles they use are now critical equipment for the security of a number of countries cooperating with the U.S. – from European NATO allies, through Ukraine and Asian countries such as Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, to Middle Eastern states such as the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Qatar.

With the war in Ukraine now in its fourth year and Russian air raids hitting Ukrainian cities, as well as the conflict in the Middle East and threats in the Persian Gulf region, the supply of Patriots and their ammunition has become a key challenge. Record use of missiles to defend Ukraine and Middle Eastern countries has significantly depleted stocks of these missiles in recent months in the Middle East, in Europe and in the U.S. itself.

Ukraine, which is preparing for another difficult winter and Russian attacks on civilian infrastructure, is appealing to Western partners for missile deliveries. European countries, including Poland, are trying to fill their own warehouses in the face of potential threats, such as repeated violations of NATO airspace by Russian drones and missiles.

The missile maker, the American company Lockheed Martin, is currently unable to meet this demand – heightened by shortages in the stockpiles of U.S. armed forces and Persian Gulf states caused by the ongoing conflict with Iran – despite declaring that it will increase production from about 600 missiles a year now to about 2,000 in the coming years. Deliveries of the Patriots ordered by Poland, which were supposed to be completed in 2029, will most likely be delayed.

Against this backdrop, at the July NATO summit in Ankara, some European countries that have Patriot systems – Poland, Germany, the Netherlands and Sweden – signed a declaration on locating a PAC-3 missile service center in one of those countries. Placing such a center in Europe could be a prelude to future missile production in Europe, which in time would make it possible to replenish allied stockpiles and continue supporting Ukraine.

In subsequent stages of the process of choosing a site for the service center in Europe, the Netherlands and Sweden dropped out; Poland and Germany remained in contention. Deputy Defense Minister Magdalena Sobkowiak-Czarnecka announced the final decision by U.S. authorities to place the service center in Poland on Tuesday, after meetings in Brussels. Germany is currently building a factory for the older PAC-2 GMT missiles – cheaper but less effective than the PAC-3 MSE.

Building such a center will not increase production capacity for the modern missiles, but it will allow better management of those already in Polish – as well as German, Swedish and Dutch – warehouses. Technologically advanced missiles of this class require regular servicing and inspection, which currently means shipping the missiles to facilities across the Atlantic; building a center in Europe will significantly shorten servicing time and reduce costs.

The Polish government’s aspiration, however, is not only to service the missiles but also to produce them; at present they are made only in the U.S. and Japan. In July, at the summit in Ankara, U.S. President Donald Trump spoke about possibly transferring a license to produce the missiles to Ukraine, but later said the U.S. had ultimately not granted Ukraine permission to do so. During a July visit to Washington, Sobkowiak-Czarnecka proposed that American partners start missile production under Polish-American-Ukrainian cooperation.

Missiles for Patriots are currently one of the most important – if not the most important – needs of Ukraine as it defends itself against Russia. Patriot systems are one of the few Western technologies capable of shooting down incoming ballistic missiles, which the Russians regularly fire at Ukrainian cities. Because of their level of technological sophistication, the volume of missile production has been fairly small in recent years, and individual missiles are known for their price, which can reach about $5 million apiece.

Patriot systems are also becoming a key element of Poland’s air defense system, forming its “highest layer,” as Patriots can counter threats at a distance of about 100 km and at an altitude of about 30 km. Under the Wisła program, Polish air defense troops have already received two Patriot batteries, which reached operational readiness in December last year. With that order in 2018, Poland also bought about 200 PAC-3 MSE missiles. In the next phase of the program, six more Patriot batteries were ordered, along with about 600 modern missiles; deliveries of this equipment were supposed to be completed by 2029, but a delay is now likely.

Besides Poland, Germany, the Netherlands and Sweden, other European users of Patriots include Ukraine, which relies on deliveries from the West, and Romania, located on NATO’s eastern flank. Polish air defense is currently supported by one Patriot battery from the Netherlands, which protects the logistics hub in Rzeszów, through which a large share of support for Ukraine passes.

Creating a missile service center in Poland will also allow other European countries to service their missiles faster and more cheaply. It is not yet known, however, where the center will be built or when it will begin operating. Several Polish defense companies belonging to the Polish Armaments Group – including MESKO in the Świętokrzyskie region, Jelcz in Lower Silesia and WZE near Warsaw – are already involved in the Wisła program, including the production of launchers and radars for Poland’s Patriots. (PAP)