If right-wing parties ran in elections as the United Right (Zjednoczona Prawica), they would win 46.6% of the vote, according to a United Surveys by IBRiS poll for Wirtualna Polska published Saturday. The Koalicja 15 X (October 15 Coalition) bloc received 41.3% support.
The poll examined a scenario of a “clash of two major electoral blocs,” prompted, the news portal said, by discussions of a “possible consolidation of the political scene.”
Respondents were asked whom they would vote for if the main political forces ran under joint banners.
The survey found that “the United Right, comprising Law and Justice (PiS), the Rozwój Plus group, Konfederacja (the Confederation) and Grzegorz Braun’s Confederation of the Polish Crown, would receive the most responses.” In the poll, that bloc won 46.6% support.
Second place went to the “October 15 Coalition, a joint list of the Civic Coalition, the Polish People’s Party (PSL), Poland 2050 and the New Left.” That option was backed by 41.3% of respondents.
WP also reported that the Razem party, running on its own, received 5.8% of the vote, clearing the statutory electoral threshold. The answer “Don’t know/Hard to say” was chosen by 6.3% of respondents.
Converting those results into Sejm seats using a model by Prof. Jarosław Flis of Jagiellonian University indicates that the broad right-wing bloc would win 242 seats, which would give it a majority on its own in the 460-seat parliament.
Under the same methodology, the October 15 Coalition would send 212 deputies to the Sejm, Poland’s lower house of parliament, and Razem would send six.
“In this arrangement, an alliance of the October 15 Coalition and Razem would have a total of only 218 votes, or 13 seats short of what is needed to form a majority government,” Wirtualna Polska concluded.
The poll was conducted Nov. 6-9, 2026, using a mixed-mode method of online surveys and standardized computer-assisted telephone interviews (CAWI and CATI), on a sample of 1,000 adult Poles. (PAP)
