High Fuel Prices Aren’t Curbing Demand for Other Goods and Services, but Poles Are Eating Into Their Savings

High fuel prices are not curbing demand for other goods and services, economists at PKO BP bank say. In their view, high consumption can be sustained thanks to high savings.

Retail sales at constant prices rose 3.3% year over year in September 2026 and fell 3.8% month over month, Poland’s Central Statistical Office (GUS) reported.

“The main reason for the slowdown in overall growth was fuel sales, which fell 9.8% year over year in real terms, after rising 1.1% year over year in August, most likely reflecting a demand reaction to the sharp rise in prices. Periods when the CPN program is in effect generate large volatility in fuel sales. On one hand, that reflects shifting purchases in anticipation of price declines or their acceleration, in order to take advantage of lower prices (lower prices were in effect through the end of August). On the other, it reflects increased ‘fuel tourism’ during periods when consumer protections are in place,” PKO BP economists wrote in a commentary on the GUS data.

They noted that data on PKO BP card transactions show the number of transactions at gas stations rose markedly after the CPN program was reintroduced in October. They stressed that the increase was limited because of the element of surprise when the program was introduced.

“In the other retail sales categories, annual growth rates were similar to or higher than a month earlier. The exception is sales of newspapers and books, which rose 1.3% year over year, compared with 2.7% year over year in August. As in previous months, sales of durable goods grew the fastest: cars by 13.1% year over year, and furniture, electronics and household appliances by 10.7% year over year. Sales growth in the ‘other’ category was also high (+15.7% year over year). The decline in clothing sales was similar to that recorded in August, at 3% year over year,” PKO BP’s commentary reads.

In the view of the bank’s economists, sales should continue to grow in the coming months, but a slowdown in real wage growth could be a limiting factor. They stressed that in September, real growth in the average wage in the enterprise sector fell below 2% year over year for the first time since September 2023.

“The current price shock is (so far) concentrated in fuel prices, for which demand is not rigid (unlike, for example, heating a home). The adjustment in fuel demand observed in September suggests that, for now, the shock is not curbing demand for other goods or, as PKO data indicate, for services. The relatively high savings rate is also a safety cushion for consumption growth,” PKO BP economists wrote. (PAP)

Bank Pekao: Sales Are ‘Phenomenally Stable’

The slower pace of retail sales growth in September is the result of volatility in fuel sales, according to a commentary by Bank Pekao economists on the GUS data released Thursday. They said that if fuel sales are excluded, it turns out that “sales are downright phenomenally stable.”

Retail sales at constant prices rose 3.3% year over year in September 2026 and fell 3.8% month over month, Poland’s Central Statistical Office (GUS) reported Thursday. In August, the increase was 3.8%.

“At first glance, this is one of the weaker readings in recent months and the latest in a series. However, a large part of the volatility in sales in recent months is a matter of fuel, and September is no exception. Excluding fuel, sales grew at the fastest pace since June and have not slowed this year. The negative effects of the oil shock are showing up in the consumption of services, not goods,” Bank Pekao economists said.

They pointed out that fuel sales fell 17% month over month, the third-largest drop in sales in this category, and that year-over-year growth slowed by more than 10 percentage points. This category alone subtracted 1.5 percentage points from retail sales.

“By our estimates, excluding fuel, sales accelerated from 4.2% to 5.4% year over year. In effect, in recent months fuel sales have gone from being a factor boosting the total to being a brake. Including them can therefore lead to erroneous conclusions about a slowdown in sales. In practice, we do not observe such trends, and sales are downright phenomenally stable: excluding fuel, in the first nine months of the year they grew at exactly the same pace as the average for 2025,” the analysts said.

In their view, nothing worrying is therefore happening in the consumption of goods.

“We cannot say the same about overall consumption, and the national accounts have been shouting this at us since the beginning of the year. However, the consequences of clearly lower growth in real incomes are visible only in the consumption of services. We think overall private consumption will grow 3% this year, after growth of 3.9% in 2025,” Bank Pekao’s commentary said. (PAP)