The harshest personal attacks are usually saved for the final stretch of an election campaign, when campaign teams decide they have little left to lose, political scientist Prof. Mariusz Kolczyński of the University of Silesia told PAP. He warned that politicians are becoming increasingly effective at mobilizing voters with negative emotions.
According to the media scholar and political scientist from the university’s Institute of Journalism and Media Communication, Poland lives in a state of permanent election campaign. Parties that are serious about next year’s parliamentary elections should already have strategies in place, the expert said, and those strategies start with public opinion research and analysis of online data that allows voters to be profiled in detail.
“Every party has to answer three questions: Where are we, where would we like to be, and how can we get there?” Kolczyński said.
He noted that polls published in the media do not always serve solely to gauge public sentiment. They can promote a party or convince the public that its rival has no chance of success. “A poll can not only describe the political reality but also influence voters’ behavior,” he said.
Asked about the search for compromising material on opponents, he explained that identifying their weaknesses is a routine part of a campaign. Analysts examine not only political decisions but also biographies, behavior and adherence to ethical norms. Specialized firms working for the parties also handle this, he said.
“The heaviest personal attacks, especially those that carry a high risk for the attacker, are generally left for the end of the campaign. That is the moment when a campaign team may decide it has little left to lose. In common parlance: all or nothing,” he said.
He cautioned, however, that an attack can also hurt those who launch it. In parliamentary elections, voters’ reaction to dishonorable methods can cost a party a dozen or even several dozen seats. Criticism of a party’s platform and of how it governs, by contrast, can be spread across the entire campaign.
Kolczyński said that in the dispute over the Constitutional Tribunal, politicians’ behavior and the emotions that accompany it may matter more to voters than legal details. “Anger, outrage, a sense of threat or hostility toward an opponent make people engage more strongly in politics,” he stressed. In his view, political conflicts are further amplified by the media.
The expert expects disputes over abortion, relations with Ukraine, benefits for Ukrainians and migration to return in the campaign. Public debt, prices and the cost of living will also be important, as will the powers of European Union institutions and the scope of EU law’s influence in the debate over the EU.
In his view, smaller parties face difficult decisions about whether to run on their own or form alliances. He called a solo run by Polska 2050 and the Polish People’s Party (PSL) risky, and he did not rule out pragmatic cooperation among various right-wing groups in the Senate elections.
Kolczyński warned that an excess of scandals and information does not necessarily dampen voters’ emotions, even if they stop following politics. “So we may be dealing with a situation in which voters know less and less, but like or loathe someone more and more strongly,” he said.
“Today we live not only in information bubbles but also in emotional bubbles,” he added. In his assessment, this makes it harder to tell truth from falsehood and to evaluate events rationally. “But do politicians really care about rational voters? I don’t think so,” he concluded.
Mira Suchodolska (PAP)
