Can Europe Stand Up to an “Alliance” of Russian, U.S. and Chinese Leaders?

Europe is capable of standing up to a planned “sinister alliance” of the leaders of Russia, the U.S. and China – Vladimir Putin, Donald Trump and Xi Jinping – and its most effective instrument is trade policy, the German weekly Der Spiegel said Thursday.

“Russian dictator Vladimir Putin dreams of a second Yalta,” the magazine’s latest issue says. (The reference is to the 1945 conference of Allied leaders that shaped postwar Europe.)

The Kremlin has proposed that the three leaders use a conference in the Chinese city of Shenzhen to decide what happens next with Ukraine. “Trump took up (the suggestion) with interest and added that denuclearization could be discussed as well,” the weekly’s commentator writes, noting that in these plans “there is no place either for Ukraine or for European countries.”

For now, a “second Yalta” is only an idea, but even if it does not come to pass, it is increasingly clear that Trump is “handing over Ukraine and Europe without a fight,” Der Spiegel stresses.

A capitulation by Ukraine would mean that Russia’s direct influence would extend to areas along Poland’s eastern border, the magazine warns. Millions more Ukrainians would flee west, and Putin could provoke NATO to a greater degree and might manage to break up the alliance. European countries would have to invest more in armaments than before, because Putin would fold Ukraine’s resources into his strategic planning, Der Spiegel lists.

To stop the threat, Europe must make clear to the Putin-Trump-Xi triumvirate that it “is not only able to endure pain, but can also inflict it.” In the magazine’s view, European trade policy can be an effective instrument, because “both China and the U.S. care about access to the European market.”

Der Spiegel notes that Europe recently used this instrument against China, forcing authorities in Beijing to better protect the European automotive industry. According to the weekly, trade arguments also dissuaded Trump from the idea of annexing Greenland.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and French President Emmanuel Macron recently proposed tightening the EU’s trade instruments. “This shows an understanding that whoever does not firmly protect their interests loses in a world that is at a turning point,” the article says.

Ahead of the trilateral meeting in Shenzhen, European politicians should make clear to the three leaders that they will respond to any decisions unfavorable to the EU with “the broadest measures that EU law allows,” Der Spiegel argues.

The German weekly concedes that, from a legal standpoint, trade instruments cannot be used to respond to geopolitical trends. “The situation, however, allows for a bit of creativity. One could wonder aloud whether the EU has imposed sanctions on Chinese companies that supply the Russian aggressor,” it suggests. “Such a move would be painful for European countries, too. But if they only look on, the pain will ultimately be even greater,” the Spiegel journalist writes in conclusion. (PAP)