European diplomats fear that a possible Republican defeat in the U.S. midterm elections could prompt President Donald Trump to take a harder line on NATO and withdraw thousands of troops from Europe, Politico reported.
Polls so far point to record turnout and a Democratic victory, which could upend the American president’s plans for the second half of his term.
In a piece published Sunday, Politico quoted five diplomats from NATO countries who spoke on condition of anonymity. They expressed the view that if Congress constrains Trump on domestic policy, he could look for an outlet for his ambitions in foreign policy, where as commander in chief he has more freedom. Three of the people Politico spoke to said this could mean withdrawing thousands more troops from Europe.
“Usually, what happens to presidents at the end of their terms is a mix of frustration and foreign policy adventurism,” one senior European defense official noted. He added that criticizing and lashing out at NATO “seem to be a permanent element of Trump’s worldview.”
Responding to these concerns, Olivia Wales, assistant White House press secretary, told Politico that “President Trump has done more for NATO than anyone else.” She stressed at the same time that Trump “remains adamant that our NATO allies should have stood with the United States” on the war with Iran. “The president will never accept the managed decline of the West,” she said.
European concerns are heightened by Washington’s recent decisions to cut Ukrainian forces off from the Starlink satellite communications system, as well as by the warming of relations between Trump and Russian leader Vladimir Putin. One diplomat acknowledged that if Republicans lose, the U.S. president “could be very angry” and act “very harshly.”
The focus is on a review of U.S. forces in Europe planned for December. Three diplomatic sources cited by Politico fear that, faced with a domestic political stalemate, Trump could significantly expand the scale of troop withdrawals in order to sustain support and enthusiasm among the MAGA movement. There is also a risk that the U.S. military presence will be tied to acceptance of the peace plan for Ukraine being pushed by Washington, the outlet noted.
A Republican defeat could also bring changes at the Pentagon. Because of Congress’s deep dislike of Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, especially among Democrats, over missing budget reports and controversial dismissals of generals, the administration could face a series of crippling congressional investigations. Hegseth’s possible departure could in turn delay decisions on the review of forces in Europe by months.
Some officials from allied countries, however, are more skeptical of these predictions. “All along we have heard speculation about Trump pulling out of NATO, which hasn’t happened so far. The final decision on the number of troops in Europe is made by Congress,” Montenegrin Defense Minister Dragan Krapović told Politico.
The U.S. midterm elections will be held Nov. 3. One-third of the Senate and the entire House of Representatives will be elected. (PAP)
Source: PAP